Nate Silver Analyzes Marriage Equality Trends

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While the results are not surprising, it is very interesting to see Nate Silver’s take on the current marriage equality trending across the U.S. The South is furthest from acceptance while the Northeast leads the pack. From Silver’s blog:

For right now, it is probably best to treat the question of whether a majority of Americans support same-sex marriage as having an ambiguous answer. Polls are on the verge of saying that they do, but the ballot results are more equivocal. By 2016, however, voters in 32 states would be willing to vote in support of same-sex marriage, according to the model. And by 2020, voters in 44 states would do so, assuming that same-sex marriage continues to gain support at roughly its previous rate.

Thus, even if one prudently assumes that support for same-sex marriage is increasing at a linear rather than accelerated pace, and that same-sex marriage will not perform quite as well at the ballot booth as in national polls of all adults, the steady increase in support is soon likely to outweigh all other factors. In fact, even if the Supreme Court decision or some other contingency freezes opinion among current voters, support for same-sex marriage would continue to increase based on generational turnover, probably enough that it would narrowly win a national ballot referendum by 2016.

Good news? Bad news? Your thoughts?

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About DanNation
Writer, gay blogger, tech addict and news junkie, DanNation grew up in Maine and resides in San Francisco and Sacramento with husband Rich and canines Puki and Sydney. He is in Year 9 of writing his DanNation blog. Feel free to submit stories, story ideas, photos and other items you'd think would interest our readers! Email: dannationblog@gmail.com.